Uganda’s annual headline inflation increased to 5.8 per cent in the year ending October 2026, up from 4.7 per cent recorded in September, driven mainly by rising f food and non-alcoholic beverages, transport and other household essentials prices according to the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS).
Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages inflation rose to 7.5 per cent from 4.7 per cent in September, while Transport inflation rose to 11.9 per cent from 9.8 per cent over the same period, putting additional pressure on household spending.
Speaking to reporters at the UBOS headquarters in Kampala on Friday, Samuel Echoku, Head of the Macroeconomic Statistics Department, said the increase in food prices was largely influenced by weather conditions but expressed optimism that the situation would improve in the coming months as the country receives favourable weather conditions.
Athough rain delayed , Echoku predicted an increase in agricultural production expected in the next one to two months would improve food supplies in markets and subsequently reduce prices, easing pressure on inflation.
“Due to the good weather we are receiving now, food prices will start coming down. In the next one or two months, markets will be flooded with produce, and the drivers of inflation will be different,” Echoku said.
He added that although transport costs and other economic factors could continue influencing prices, he did not expect the current pressure from food prices to persist for a long period.
On the exchange rate, Echoku said the situation was being managed but cautioned that a return to previous levels should not be expected immediately because of changing economic conditions.
He explained that when the exchange rate rises to a certain level, it may not necessarily return to its previous position, even when market conditions improve.
Echoku said inflationary pressures arising from exchange rate movements were expected to gradually ease, although the adjustment would take time.
The UBOS figures show that several other expenditure categories also recorded increases in annual inflation during October.
Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels inflation rose to 6.8 per cent from 6.2 per cent, while Restaurants and Accommodation Services increased to 2.8 per cent from 2.3 per cent.
Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance inflation increased to 3.8 per cent from 3.3 per cent, while Clothing and Footwear rose to 1.7 per cent from 1.3 per cent.
Personal Care, Social Protection and Miscellaneous Goods inflation increased to 1.8 per cent from 1.6 per cent, while Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco and Narcotics rose to 2.0 per cent from 1.7 per cent.
Recreation, Sport and Culture inflation increased to 1.8 per cent from 1.6 per cent, while Health inflation rose slightly to 1.8 per cent from 1.7 per cent. Information and Communication inflation increased to 3.3 per cent from 3.2 per cent.
Education Services inflation remained unchanged at 5.7 per cent, while Insurance and Financial Services maintained the same rate of 10.1 per cent recorded in September.
At the regional level, Kampala Middle Income registered the second-highest annual inflation rate at 6.1 per cent, up from 4.7 per cent in September. This was mainly attributed to Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages inflation, which increased to 8.6 per cent from 5.9 per cent, and Transport inflation, which rose to 13.4 per cent from 10.4 per cent.
Mbarara Centre recorded the lowest annual inflation rate at 4.8 per cent, compared to 2.9 per cent in September. The increase was influenced by changes in Education Services inflation, which declined to 1.4 per cent from 2.3 per cent, and Health inflation, which fell to 1.3 per cent from 1.7 per cent.
On a monthly basis, Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages inflation increased by 2.3 per cent in October, compared to a 2.6 per cent rise in September. Transport inflation accelerated to 1.2 per cent from 0.7 per cent, while Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels rose by 0.7 per cent compared to 0.1 per cent in the previous month.
Education Services recorded a monthly increase of 1.7 per cent after remaining unchanged in September. Restaurants and Accommodation Services rose by 0.8 per cent, while Clothing and Footwear increased by 0.7 per cent.
Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance rose by 0.6 per cent, while Personal Care and Miscellaneous Goods increased by 0.2 per cent.
Echoku also urged consumers to use inflation and price information published by UBOS to make informed purchasing decisions, saying the statistics help the public understand price movements in the market.
However, he said direct consumer protection, including addressing exploitation and substandard products, falls under the responsibility of other government institutions.
He noted that consumer protection is a broad responsibility involving several aspects, including product quality and standards, which require the intervention of relevant ministries and agencies.
On concerns about possible price increases during the festive season, Echoku said Uganda currently has relatively stable supplies of goods and had not experienced widespread shortages that would automatically trigger significant price increases.
He said UBOS had not historically observed consistent festive-season changes in accommodation and alcoholic beverage prices across the wider economy.
However, he acknowledged that accommodation prices in tourism destinations, particularly around national parks and game reserves, could experience seasonal changes depending on tourist demand.
Echoku maintained that the expected improvement in food supplies could help moderate inflationary pressures in the coming months, although other factors, including transport costs and exchange rate movements, would continue to influence the general price level.